Looking into the Future
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In a world which is becoming less predictable and where the pace of change seems to be accelerating it is both more difficult and more important to look into the future. To do so effectively requires looking around corners to see the effects of the next disruptive technology or social trend.
Understanding historical trends is a useful starting point since history has a tendency to repeat itself, but looking into the future requires spotting nascent trends and separating them from passing fads. Given the uncertainty inherent in predicting the future, scenario creation is a useful tool which can expose key risks and opportunities. |
Looking into the future is not just about spotting trends, but separating those that will reverberate from those that will subside.
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Beyond the Crossroads: four possible post-Covid futures
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Beyond Logic Consulting wished to look into what a post Covid world might look like and has developed four scenarios to illustrate the future beyond the current crossroads we find ourselves in. To do this we considered not just the potential residual effects of Covid, but also influences such as climate change, increasing obesity, developing technologies such as AI, automation, drones, biotech and 5G, and the influence of government policies and major corporations such as Google and Apple. The full article can be found in the Library).
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CASE STUDY: THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS
Project description
This was a Research & Innovation project undertaken for Steer which involved undertaking a thorough literature review, new analysis of existing data, research amongst a cross-section of the population using an on-line panel survey, and a Delphi-style exercise amongst a range of experts. The research explored 33 trends such as a more active mature population, more flexible working patterns, increased time poverty, increased use of the internet for work, leisure and shopping, and increasing environmental awareness. This research is now being updated to reflect the impact of Covid, which has accelerated many of the trends, while putting the brakes on some others.
Project outputs
Outputs of this work have directly fed into a number of Steer projects including work for Transport for the South East (TfSE) on a Future Mobility Strategy, and work for L&Q Estates on future needs in relation to housing and workplaces.
Added value
A lot of research has been undertaken on the trends examined but two particular dimensions have been added by this project. The first of these is to consider how the trends have differential impacts on particular segments of the population. While an ‘average’ trend is often quoted (such as an increase in online shopping or flexible working, or the uptake of a new technology such as taxi/can apps like Uber), this hides substantial variations within the population, and ignoring these gives a very superficial and potentially misleading impression.
The second added dimension is to look at the interactions between trends. One example is the combination of an ageing population together with improved healthcare and a sizeable (and growing) segment of relatively wealthy retired adults. The net effect of these is an increase in spending and travel by relatively mature people, many of whom have one or more impairments related to hearing, site, cognitive ability or mobility.
Behavioural science concepts
Herd behaviour - the Herd Behaviour effect means that when a trend reaches a tipping point its impact can accelerate
Power of context - the environment someone lives or works in can have a major effect on whether a particular trend has an impact on them – not everyone can work flexibly or work from home, for example.
Status Quo bias - habit is a major factor on limiting (or at least delaying) the impact of a trend or new technology. ‘Early adopters’ are defined by not being constrained by habit, but their behaviour cannot be used directly to forecast the behaviour of others.
Project description
This was a Research & Innovation project undertaken for Steer which involved undertaking a thorough literature review, new analysis of existing data, research amongst a cross-section of the population using an on-line panel survey, and a Delphi-style exercise amongst a range of experts. The research explored 33 trends such as a more active mature population, more flexible working patterns, increased time poverty, increased use of the internet for work, leisure and shopping, and increasing environmental awareness. This research is now being updated to reflect the impact of Covid, which has accelerated many of the trends, while putting the brakes on some others.
Project outputs
Outputs of this work have directly fed into a number of Steer projects including work for Transport for the South East (TfSE) on a Future Mobility Strategy, and work for L&Q Estates on future needs in relation to housing and workplaces.
Added value
A lot of research has been undertaken on the trends examined but two particular dimensions have been added by this project. The first of these is to consider how the trends have differential impacts on particular segments of the population. While an ‘average’ trend is often quoted (such as an increase in online shopping or flexible working, or the uptake of a new technology such as taxi/can apps like Uber), this hides substantial variations within the population, and ignoring these gives a very superficial and potentially misleading impression.
The second added dimension is to look at the interactions between trends. One example is the combination of an ageing population together with improved healthcare and a sizeable (and growing) segment of relatively wealthy retired adults. The net effect of these is an increase in spending and travel by relatively mature people, many of whom have one or more impairments related to hearing, site, cognitive ability or mobility.
Behavioural science concepts
Herd behaviour - the Herd Behaviour effect means that when a trend reaches a tipping point its impact can accelerate
Power of context - the environment someone lives or works in can have a major effect on whether a particular trend has an impact on them – not everyone can work flexibly or work from home, for example.
Status Quo bias - habit is a major factor on limiting (or at least delaying) the impact of a trend or new technology. ‘Early adopters’ are defined by not being constrained by habit, but their behaviour cannot be used directly to forecast the behaviour of others.
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Tony Duckenfield is a Certified Member of the Market Research Society and ensures all Beyond Logic's research is undertaken to their demanding standards 
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